I first heard about bitcoin sometime in college (2007-2011). At the time I thought about buying a couple just for fun (might have been a few dollars worth? Can’t remember). But I decided it was a waste of money.
And at the time, it was a complete waste of money. I don’t regret it at all.
Only with knowledge of the future would it have been worthwhile.
But today when I see what cryptocurrency has become, I regret my decision even less.
There are countless ways I could have made millions if I knew the future. I don’t waste my time regretting those.
> He made a bold claim that one day it might reach $100k per coin. I remember thinking it sounded unrealistic - and even if it wasn't, I wasn't going to break my rule.
> ... The opportunity cost came out to tens of millions of dollars.
It doesn't sound, though, like you'd have held until 100k. This calculation only applies to people who'd have held for some reason; e.g. just after the conversation, you slipped into a coma and you just woke up now.
But I usually hear it from people who "could've bought at $2 but didn't!"
If you didn't buy at $2, you wouldn't have held at $4. If you didn't buy at $300, you wouldn't have held at $600. Etc.
The first thing one has to do when analysing past money decisions is to judge the decision based on the information available at the time.
I too watched from the sidelines as btc, nvda and others went to the moon. But with the information available at the time, investing in those was not a sound strategy.
hindsight is 20/20. If I'd known that Nvda, Aapl, Amzn etc. would go up, it's easy to now to regret how much money we'd have. Same thing with "RSU's" we get at FAANG. I often hear from coworkers that if they wouldn't have sold them when they got them, they'd be rich right now. Yes, they would be - but in an alternate universe, they'd have little/nothing and wouldn't have bought the car/camera/vacation they got out of the money when they sold the RSUs.
I added something related to this idea to my life-planning app: what if for projections. I track all my expenses/incomes/investments in my app. I then can with 1 click run a scenario where I move certain expenses to investments. I.e. cancelling netflix for 10 years, or xbox gamepass etc. and seeing what it would actually do to my 10 year projection (which already accounts for ETFs/Stock with variable return rates etc.). i.e.:
Exclude Recurring Expenses
Simulate cutting these expenses and investing the savings
Redirecting €19.99/month to investments
Then I see black on white what would happen if I get rid of all the 'small' subscriptions, on a visual chart. It's eye opening when one selects items that add up to a ~100 Euro ++ a month.
I tracked every single daily expense for a few years, until I hit a point where I realized I already knew exactly where my money was going and how much I could realistically save. It just comes down to discipline.
I really appreciate the idea and saved it for potential future features! My only hesitation is that adding practical projection tools might make shouldhavebought lose its fun, curious spirit and turn it into a serious financial app.
You're right of course. For me the difference maker is in seeing on a projection chart that if I just cancel 2x zwift, disney and netflix, I can save up to:
Savings from Cuts
€11,048
€60/mo @ 8%
within 10 years. That's HUGE! While the 60 Euro a month seems kind of irrelevant on its own.
Most reasonable people will not have enough conviction to make a serious amount of money even if they’re right. I think a better question is how much would you have invested to make $500k/ $1mn (or whatever a life changing sum is for you) on the investment then you can consider whether you had the stomach to do that.
Why stop at financial loss? I did https://whentheywere.com - enter your DOB and get a feel on how you compare to Einstein, Michael Jordan, Steve Jobs and others.
This is quite a fun website, what have you used for the backend, i've been wanting to get more deployments for small web tools but the hug of death always worries me
Oh good grief. $2.5m. That’s pretty funny. Hard to imagine I would have held through the ride but a pretty penny nonetheless. Not as bad as my buddy who sold his $200k grant in 2017 to buy a San Jose townhome that costs exactly the same today hahaha!
My question is, why would you do that to yourself? Living with regrets of the past that would never have been, anyway, seems like a recipe for sadness and despair. Maybe my sense of fun or humor or whatever is off, but I just don't get doing this to yourself, man. You could have hooked into them and thought $1,000 is the highest it'll go and sold them all them. Who knows‽
And at the time, it was a complete waste of money. I don’t regret it at all.
Only with knowledge of the future would it have been worthwhile.
But today when I see what cryptocurrency has become, I regret my decision even less.
There are countless ways I could have made millions if I knew the future. I don’t waste my time regretting those.
> ... The opportunity cost came out to tens of millions of dollars.
It doesn't sound, though, like you'd have held until 100k. This calculation only applies to people who'd have held for some reason; e.g. just after the conversation, you slipped into a coma and you just woke up now.
But I usually hear it from people who "could've bought at $2 but didn't!"
If you didn't buy at $2, you wouldn't have held at $4. If you didn't buy at $300, you wouldn't have held at $600. Etc.
Me neither fwiw :)
I too watched from the sidelines as btc, nvda and others went to the moon. But with the information available at the time, investing in those was not a sound strategy.
In my experience, you'll be able to evaluate the correctness of your actions today in about five years, when you have more data and results.
I added something related to this idea to my life-planning app: what if for projections. I track all my expenses/incomes/investments in my app. I then can with 1 click run a scenario where I move certain expenses to investments. I.e. cancelling netflix for 10 years, or xbox gamepass etc. and seeing what it would actually do to my 10 year projection (which already accounts for ETFs/Stock with variable return rates etc.). i.e.:
Exclude Recurring Expenses Simulate cutting these expenses and investing the savings Redirecting €19.99/month to investments
Then I see black on white what would happen if I get rid of all the 'small' subscriptions, on a visual chart. It's eye opening when one selects items that add up to a ~100 Euro ++ a month.
I really appreciate the idea and saved it for potential future features! My only hesitation is that adding practical projection tools might make shouldhavebought lose its fun, curious spirit and turn it into a serious financial app.
Savings from Cuts
€11,048
€60/mo @ 8%
within 10 years. That's HUGE! While the 60 Euro a month seems kind of irrelevant on its own.
Here's one for 01/01/1990: https://whentheywere.com/?date=1990-01-01
You can subscribe to a calendar and get notified when you are exactly the age someone was, when they achieved something.
When I use it, it tells me that the form was incomplete. I tried to figure out how much I regret having bought 0 bitcoin so far.
Perhaps needs a better error message? I think it actually doesn't like the zero, but prevents it doesn't like incomplete data. Zero is also a number.
> CAUSALITY_ERROR: You cannot SELL before you BUY.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance)
Needs at least a better error message that short sells aren't supported, instead of trying to be too clever by half about causality.
Fair point on the shorting - I definitely prioritized retro drama over actual market mechanics there!
WELCOME TO REALITY. IT’S EXPENSIVE.
No offense meant. Just my two Satoshis.