LLMs can't be strategic because they do not understand the big picture -- that the real work of good software is balancing a hundred different constraints in a way that produces the optimal result for the humans who use it.
It's not all that different from the state of big corp software today! Large organizations with layers of management tend to lose all abiliy to keep a consistent strategy. They tend to go all in on a single dimension such as ROI for the next quarter, but it misses the bigger picture. Good software is about creating longer term value and takes consistent skill & vision to execute.
Those software engineers who focus on this big picture thinking are going to be more valuable than ever.
I don't feel like the abstraction away from assembly language resulted in fewer software engineering jobs. Nor do I feel like Java's virtual machine resulted in fewer systems engineering jobs. Somehow I don't feel that writing in English rather than pure logic will result in fewer engineering problems either. A lot more actually. But at least we'll get the requirements out of users into something concrete faster.
What is definitely going to be abundantly clear is just how much better machines can get at creating correct code and how bad each of us truly is at this. That's an ego hit.
The loving effort an artisan puts into a perfect pot still has wabi sabi from the human error; whereas a factory produced pot is way more perfect and possesses both a Quality from closeness to Idealism and an eerieness from its unnaturalness.
However, the demand for artisan pottery has niched out compared to Ikea bowls, so that's just how it is.
It's not all that different from the state of big corp software today! Large organizations with layers of management tend to lose all abiliy to keep a consistent strategy. They tend to go all in on a single dimension such as ROI for the next quarter, but it misses the bigger picture. Good software is about creating longer term value and takes consistent skill & vision to execute.
Those software engineers who focus on this big picture thinking are going to be more valuable than ever.
Given the models are unlikely to stop getting better, I think it is fair to say the human contribution is going to keep getting "leaner".
That is going to change the job, but also head count.
But I agree harnessing models opens up opportunities for better product design, ... but only ... everywhere.
The people who design the most usable software have always been in a minority. They will be valuable for some time.
What is definitely going to be abundantly clear is just how much better machines can get at creating correct code and how bad each of us truly is at this. That's an ego hit.
The loving effort an artisan puts into a perfect pot still has wabi sabi from the human error; whereas a factory produced pot is way more perfect and possesses both a Quality from closeness to Idealism and an eerieness from its unnaturalness.
However, the demand for artisan pottery has niched out compared to Ikea bowls, so that's just how it is.