> A reverse centaur is a machine that uses a human being as its assistant
So like a political, military or religious machine does. We're already bred for it. We're Konrad Lorenz's geese, desperate to be led. It's the path of least resistance.
> This is a political act of resistance. Margaret Thatcher's motto, after all, was "There is no alternative," by which she meant, "Stop trying to think of alternatives." The bully's trick is to present your defeat as a fait accompli: "Resistance is futile."
More broadly, that trick is the most effective and important today: No matter the issue, people - including on HN - will tell you how powerless they are and how pointless it is. It's such a social norm that they will actively resist and attack anyone who violates it and suggests otherwise - goodness forbid you have hope, an idea, or want to do something. I see many adopt bizarrely false perspectives and opinions for which the only sensible explanation (IMHO) is they are strong defenses against action and empowerment - many/most won't even talk about serious issues like climate change (see - I bet you're triggered by the suggestion of discussing it).
People never accomplish anything without believing in it first. It's old, basic military psyops to preach hopelessness to the enemy soldiers, in dropped pamphlets, radio broadcasts, through propaganda campaigns. Sorry, I forgot - we can't talk about those things either.
Until people believe, nothing will change. When they believe, everything will change. That's why there is so much impetus toward despair.
I don't find empty platitudes like "you can just do things" all that inspiring. I prefer seeing a specific example of something you could do and an explanation about why it might help.
Great analogy and really good points. I'm hopeful for a "slow pop" on the bubble though but we'll see! Very nice and so much easier to actually read a non-ai generated article too.
I'm not sure his argument holds that foundational models will no longer function after the bubble pops. There's plenty of open weight models that are competitive which are more likely to exist in a world with abundant cheap GPUs.
>When the AI bubble bursts, there will be stellar bargains on GPUs…
>these standalone models can do amazing things
>The things these open source standalone models can do will only expand, and they will become a given for our computing applications.
I think of the “big” foundation models as the “fossil fuel” of AI. Once the bubble pops and we can’t afford to train any more of them, we’ll be distilling and remixing the ones we managed to make during this weird period where they were feasible.
CTF + F "bubble" - 15 results. This guy was manically predicting the bubble in 2025
> AI is a bubble.
> AI is a bubble. Bubbles burst. We're in for a near-total collapse of the AI investment mania
> AI is a bubble, and when bubbles burst, they sometimes leave behind a productive residue
> When the AI bubble bursts, there will be stellar bargains on GPUs
> The bad news is all the damage the bubble is doing now and all the further damage that will come from its collapse.
> After the bubble bursts, there will be the mass incineration of everyday people's retirement savings and the knock-on effects as the whole market craters
> Every day the bubble persists, the harms of today and tomorrow increase. We need to burst that bubble as soon as possible.
Holy. Shit. This guy is insane. He's been pulling the same schtick since 2014 calling many other companies a bubble. Why why is this guy taken seriously.
He evidently has no clue about open source (people just plagiarize with AI and don't do amazing things).
If he wants to build resistance as stated in the last paragraphs maybe he should be a bit more careful.
So like a political, military or religious machine does. We're already bred for it. We're Konrad Lorenz's geese, desperate to be led. It's the path of least resistance.
More broadly, that trick is the most effective and important today: No matter the issue, people - including on HN - will tell you how powerless they are and how pointless it is. It's such a social norm that they will actively resist and attack anyone who violates it and suggests otherwise - goodness forbid you have hope, an idea, or want to do something. I see many adopt bizarrely false perspectives and opinions for which the only sensible explanation (IMHO) is they are strong defenses against action and empowerment - many/most won't even talk about serious issues like climate change (see - I bet you're triggered by the suggestion of discussing it).
People never accomplish anything without believing in it first. It's old, basic military psyops to preach hopelessness to the enemy soldiers, in dropped pamphlets, radio broadcasts, through propaganda campaigns. Sorry, I forgot - we can't talk about those things either.
Until people believe, nothing will change. When they believe, everything will change. That's why there is so much impetus toward despair.
>When the AI bubble bursts, there will be stellar bargains on GPUs…
>these standalone models can do amazing things
>The things these open source standalone models can do will only expand, and they will become a given for our computing applications.
I think of the “big” foundation models as the “fossil fuel” of AI. Once the bubble pops and we can’t afford to train any more of them, we’ll be distilling and remixing the ones we managed to make during this weird period where they were feasible.
> AI is a bubble.
> AI is a bubble. Bubbles burst. We're in for a near-total collapse of the AI investment mania
> AI is a bubble, and when bubbles burst, they sometimes leave behind a productive residue
> When the AI bubble bursts, there will be stellar bargains on GPUs
> The bad news is all the damage the bubble is doing now and all the further damage that will come from its collapse.
> After the bubble bursts, there will be the mass incineration of everyday people's retirement savings and the knock-on effects as the whole market craters
> Every day the bubble persists, the harms of today and tomorrow increase. We need to burst that bubble as soon as possible.
Holy. Shit. This guy is insane. He's been pulling the same schtick since 2014 calling many other companies a bubble. Why why is this guy taken seriously.