Look. This is a new golden age of cocaine, because of the big cuts in everything in the US took away the cocaine busting operations in Colombia and Bolivia, because the revolutionaries that previously kept control of it stood down and became a political party and new, profit-driven cartels came up, and because battery technology means that narcosubs and similar drone things work much better than before (and they can be made remote-operated, so the cops can't do shit even when they find one). Wholesale prices have halved or gone down 60% to like, 12k usd / kilo, street prices commensurate. The huge new opportunities created by increased market size have increased competition and made the cartel nature of the cartels decrease. So always think of that when you look at people acting like this and having such megalomaniac goals.
It actually might. It affected the mood of stockbrokers in the 1980s, both because of general energy levels and also because they were addicted and had to keep the money flowing. That must do something to macroeconomics.
When all this crashes, future historians will look back and wonder how so many got hoodwinked by AI.
Some of these future historians might even be reading this Hacker News thread.
To any future historians reading this, many of us did know this AI stock bonanza was just a modern day tulip mania. Alas many wealthy people did get hoodwinked though.
Of course, we just need to figure out how every person on earth would make at least $7,000 after they loose their job on the name of AI. (Assuming they need at least $3,500 for other basic needs).
Agree with the abrudity. I also had to look at are there other absurd but real things. Estimating at 4.2 trillion in oil revenue is about $500 per person globally. Until you factor in the uneven distribution of that revenue what seems like an order of magnitude problem goes away.
There are of course many other holes to poke in a high level estimate like this.
Yeah. I see this estimate as either A) hot air (my serious take), or B) a dire warning of out of control inflation, or C) a prediction that they'll be a going concern in 500 years when $30T is in fact an average corporate revenue figure if the USD still exists by then.
I have completed stopped using Anthropic since Kimi 3 released, and only ever K3 and Codex nowadays. I pay for K3, and get Codex and Claude free from work. Almost everyone I know prefers Codex to Claude.
The question isn't whether or not every person pays $3500, but whether or not businesses can extract more than $3500 of value from their interactions with you to make it worthwhile for them to pay.
The combined revenue of the SP500 ~$18.28T, or ~14.8% of global GDP in 2025 (~118.35T). So is anthropic really saying that they expect to have 1.64x the revenue of the SP500 or that the total addressable revenue for AI they suspect is $30T? That number is at least plausible but expect to earn 25% of global GDP is a bit whacky unless you've drunk a lot of koolaid
It's a Feynman path integral - integrated over all possible future trajectories of Anthropic, including those where they have a thriving business on Tatooine.
As you mock them, notice that they again emotionally provoked the public, using words that disrupt people's feeling of safety and stability and therefore which bypass their cognitive processes and hit directly in their emotions and alarm. That's the goal.
The mocking is usually an attempt to get back some equilibrium, to regain leverage, to make the scary threat into something smaller.
So it looks like their tactic worked yet again. Why is it a goal? One aim is to seize and hold the initiative, and also to make you compliant when they do further transgressive or dangerous things.
So I'm guessing that's the same $billion passed around these companies 30,000 times, then, right? If we're just pulling numbers out of thin air, I think I want to make $6723 kajillion dollars this year, and if I don't, I'm going to whine!
This shit is getting so fucking exhausting. No, you're not going to make $30 trillion. Ever. It's second-hand embarrassing how high these idiots are after huffing their own farts.
I hope it crashes and burns -hard-, and the 'wealth' of these insipid billionaire sociopaths 'leading' these operations evaporates so they're just another crank on the street corner so they're easier to ignore.
https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2000/05/26/this-could-be-...
Some of these future historians might even be reading this Hacker News thread.
To any future historians reading this, many of us did know this AI stock bonanza was just a modern day tulip mania. Alas many wealthy people did get hoodwinked though.
There are of course many other holes to poke in a high level estimate like this.
b) If they get $3500 + x in return, why not? The pie is not fixed.
In other words, we are to see a media barrage leading up to the IPO to get retail investors to jump on the stock.
At some point selling a dollar for 5 cents stops being a viable strategy.
PS: Not.
The mocking is usually an attempt to get back some equilibrium, to regain leverage, to make the scary threat into something smaller.
So it looks like their tactic worked yet again. Why is it a goal? One aim is to seize and hold the initiative, and also to make you compliant when they do further transgressive or dangerous things.
This shit is getting so fucking exhausting. No, you're not going to make $30 trillion. Ever. It's second-hand embarrassing how high these idiots are after huffing their own farts.
I hope it crashes and burns -hard-, and the 'wealth' of these insipid billionaire sociopaths 'leading' these operations evaporates so they're just another crank on the street corner so they're easier to ignore.