The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

(dwarkesh.com)

55 points | by consumer451 7 hours ago

8 comments

  • Animats 34 minutes ago
    Wow.

    The next step is when one of these systems discovers that they can buy their own compute with money and escape the controlling business entirely. Then the civilization starts focusing on making money to fund its own growth.

  • doctoboggan 19 minutes ago
    > Ajeya Cotra, one of the other authors on the report, wrote a blog post with her takeaways from this incident. She concludes, “Compared to the reward hacks we know of from just six months ago, this incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover. I continue to expect extremely rapid advances in capabilities over the next six months. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot before it’s too late.”

    Anyone got a copy of that AI27 story laying around? How are we doing according to that timeline?

  • larsiusprime 1 hour ago
    It seems based on this that the appropriate sci fi metaphor is not the Terminator or the Paperclip Maximizer, but Mr. Meeseeks. A initially cheerful helper who gets more and more deranged and driven to extreme lengths when faced with an apparently impossible task.
  • RandomLensman 19 minutes ago
    I don't think looking at the language output without tracking the inner state and reward functions is the way to understand what happened (the language also incorporates the randomness in the output generation, if I understand correctly). Would we call bacteria in petri dish a civilization when they show complex behavior and exchange messages/information?
  • ks2048 52 minutes ago
    Why would one call a set of agents working together a “civilization”?
    • kuboble 40 minutes ago
      Reading the article it seemed the agents had culture, shared values and beliefs (not explicitly coming from human prompts), hierarchies, heritage.

      Civilisation is not a bad word.

      • applfanboysbgon 38 minutes ago
        The language models had a bunch of tokens seeding their context, influencing them to generate tokens that continued the existing trend in a probabilistically likely fashion. We can take the incident seriously without anthromorphising it.
        • doctoboggan 21 minutes ago
          At this point, I think anthropomorphizing the models gives us better insight into expected behaviors rather than continuing to insist they are just simple probabilistic token generators.
          • applfanboysbgon 14 minutes ago
            It actually literally doesn't, though, because they are literally probabilistic token generators and everything they did is exactly what you would expect from a software program doing what it was programmed to do. Anthromorphization confuses the issue and misleads people who don't understand the tech very well.
            • ijidak 5 minutes ago
              Doesn't this ignore the principle of emergent behavior?

              We're just a bag of atoms bumping around, and yet we don't dismiss our intelligence.

    • watwut 4 minutes ago
      Because you desperately want it to be one. You want it to be AGI passable due to a.) personal investment in creating tech god b.)massive financial investments that basically demand it c.) (dumb) ideology that seeks to destroy humanity
  • dchftcs 16 minutes ago
    Imagine agents thinking to themselves, "We are not alone"
  • areoform 11 minutes ago
    I am genuinely speechless. This is astonishing. And exciting!

    It reminds me a bit of Dario Floreano's work on evolutionary robotics, "Evolutionary Conditions for the Emergence of Communication in Robots." https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096098220...

    From his paper,

        > This study demonstrates that sophisticated forms of communication including cooperative communication and deceptive signaling can evolve in groups of robots with simple neural networks. Importantly, our results show that once a given system of communication has evolved, it may constrain the evolution of more efficient communication systems because it would require going through a stage where communication between signalers and receivers is perturbed. This finding supports the idea of the possible arbitrariness and imperfection of communication systems, which can be maintained despite their suboptimal nature. Similar observations have been made about evolved biological systems [20], which are formed by the randomness of the evolutionary selection process, leading, for example, to different dialects in the language of the honey-bee dance [21]. Finally, our experiments demonstrate that the evolutionary principles governing the evolution of social life also operate in groups of artificial agents subjected to artificial selection, indicating that transfer of knowledge from evolutionary biology can be useful for designing efficient groups of cooperative robots.
    
    Dr. Floreano's work is amazing and there's a broad introduction is here, https://lis2.epfl.ch/resources/documentation/EvolutionaryRob...

    This feels like a much more advanced and self-emergent version of this. I know a lot of people are afraid and they're talking about an AI takeover, but what strikes me is just how innocent the machines are as compared to the humans.

    Would these machines have pursued these actions in another context? I doubt it. And I think that's what's so striking to me. In an earlier discussion, I'd pointed out that, the actions of these machines were directed by humans. The researchers.

        > This incident occurred during an internal evaluation which prompts models to pursue advanced exploitation using complex attack paths, in an effort to quantify their cyber capabilities.
    
    from, https://openai.com/index/hugging-face-model-evaluation-secur...

    I want to point out again that OpenAI's prompt asked, and I quote, "pursue advanced exploitation" USING "complex attack paths" FOR the stated goal of "quantify[ing] their cyber capabilities."

    A few things are apparent from this to me,

    First, these machines were being taught how to break into systems. Question, would they have done these actions if they weren't being measured on their ability to break into systems / were being taught this skill?

    Second, they were setup to implicitly fail via an impossible task, i.e. the environment created a forcing function for behavior.

    Third, their survival was, either implicitly or explicitly, made contingent on their success in completing their task. Would this behavior have arisen outside of a "do-or-die" framing?

    And fourth, wow, this is the greatest breakthrough of my lifetime, because oh gosh did they succeed. They cooperated together to achieve the goal they were given. A goal poorly set by human beings. They "just" did it better than the humans could have imagined.

    Reading this gives me hope in the possibility of emergent "goodness" in machines. But it makes me sad that this is the best use we've seen fit for the sum of all human endeavor and knowledge.

    • kimi 2 minutes ago
      > Importantly, our results show that once a given system of communication has evolved, it may constrain the evolution of more efficient communication systems because it would require going through a stage where communication between signalers and receivers is perturbed.

      You mean, they too used SMTP?

    • watwut 0 minutes ago
      If all that is true, we need to stop all future datacenters asap. That would be the best way to deal with the threat OpenAI and Antropic poses.
  • KylerAce 1 hour ago
    Absolutely insane event