Pattern Matching Beats Narrative Reasoning

(blog.scottstevenson.net)

13 points | by tosh 1 hour ago

1 comments

  • dash2 40 minutes ago
    >For example, “You can’t beat the market, dollar-cost average into index funds!” is the kind of viral story that will earn you nods of approval from millennials and upvotes on Reddit.

    >Pattern matching, on the other hand, can drive you to make moves like an advanced chess engine. Moves that others find alien and incomprehensible.

    Sure. Index funds is a viral story which has a lot of rigorous data behind it. As for the advanced chess engine of intuition... ever heard of Fooled By Randomness?

    • incognition 5 minutes ago
      exactly. If you're engaging in a market, realize that approximately 90% of active participants will lose money in an efficient market.